We move on to our second installment of A Closer Look, but we don’t move very far, staying in Clearwater to take a look at Threshers pitcher Chance Chapman.
Chapman was the Phillies’ 8th Round Pick in 2007 out of Oral Roberts, and he signed almost immediately for a $20K bonus. BA had this to say about him when he was taken…
Chapman’s strikeout pitch is a big league slider, and he also has an 88-91 mph fastball with life. When he commands his fastball, he’s tough to hit. Chapman’s age works against him, as he’s 23 after spending three years at Cuesta (Calif.) Junior College and missing all of 2004 with an injury.
Now in his third season of pro ball, I think it’s fair to assess what Chapman has achieved so far, and project where his career might be headed. Check below the jump as we tackle the numbers.
As mentioned, Chapman wasted no time signing and reported to the NYPL in 2007. As a 23-year old in the pitching-dominated league, he took care of business, making the All-Star team and posting the following line:
2007 (A-, Age 23): 77.2 IP — 7.8 K/9 — 2.3 BB/9 — 52.3% GB — 1.16 WHIP — 2.21 DICE
A solid performance, tempered of course by his age. Still, given the supposedly plus slider, it made Chapman an intriguing candidate for conversion to a bullpen role. You’ve undoubtedly heard the logic before, but it bears repeating — the idea is that a guy will be able to scrap his marginal pitches, concentrate on his two best offerings, and add a few ticks to his velocity since he can gear up in one- and two-inning bursts. This seemed to be the best way forward for Chapman, and though he began 2008 in the Lakewood rotation, I wondered if the Phils were going to have him go the Pat Overholt route, i.e. have Chance pitch as a starter in order to better develop his offerings, and promote him midseason with an eye toward having him ready for the bullpen within a year or two (see Overholt’s 2007 season here).
Unfortunately for Chance, that turned out not to be the case. This is just speculation on my part, but I wonder if: (1) the relative dearth of starting pitching options in Lakewood, at least until the Worley/Stutes/Cisco trio arrived; and (2) the fact that the BlueClaws were in a pennant race; were the primary factors that conspired to keep Chapman in Lakewood for the entirety of the season. Whatever the case, he once again posted solid numbers:
2008 (A, Age 24): 139.0 IP — 7.6 K/9 — 2.4 BB/9 — 51.1% GB — 1.22 WHIP — 2.73 DICE
And so at Age 25, entering his third season in pro ball, Chapman has finally been shifted to the bullpen for the Threshers. There’s reason to believe he may have some success in that role, too. He doesn’t show a noticeable platoon split, holding LHB to a a career .253 BAA and RHB to a career .244 BAA, and his ground ball tendencies have cut down on both the extra bases hits and the home runs allowed (just 7 in 216.2 IP heading into this year). Finally, while his peripherals have generally stayed strong from inning to inning, it appears from the numbers that his stuff is a bit more hittable the deeper Chapman goes into a game. Here’s his career batting average against figures by inning:
1st: .192
2nd: .236
3rd: .233
4th: .255
5th: .262
6th: .292
7th: .333
That, of course, lends further credence to the idea that Chapman’s stuff, and numbers, would only improve with a shift to a relief role.
So far this year, Chapman made a spot start as part of a make-up doubleheader on April 16, and he’s been used out of the bullpen twice. It’s certainly a miniscule sample size, but in his two relief outings totaling 3.2 innings, Chapman has surrendered 1 hit, 0 runs, walked 2 and struck out 4. On Sunday, he was used as a set-up man, and pitched a hitless, scoreless inning (inducing 2 groundouts and 1 flyout) to bridge the gap from starter Yohan Flande to closer Jared Simon.
Based on the career numbers and his repertoire, I think Chapman has a future as a reliever. If he posts solid numbers for the Threshers through the first half of the season, the organization should not hesistate to bump him to Reading by midseason. Many might look at Chapman and see organizational filler, but I see a guy with a chance to help the major league club in the bullpen by 2010 or 2011 at the latest — and when you have someone who can do that for 3 years at the major league minimum, it’s a valuable asset.
